{"id":2384,"date":"2016-11-13T01:42:12","date_gmt":"2016-11-13T06:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/?p=2384"},"modified":"2016-11-14T07:00:39","modified_gmt":"2016-11-14T12:00:39","slug":"election-questions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/?p=2384","title":{"rendered":"Election questions"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. R votes were about what they were in the past. What we really need to know is whether these are almost entirely people who have chosen R in the past. If yes, then the big question for Rs is \u201cwhy would they accept him?\u201d If it’s lots of new R votes, compensating for lots of Rs who didn’t vote for R again, then the question is \u201cwhy these new Rs for this<\/em> election?\u201d<\/p>\n

2. D votes are down relative to the past. What we really need to know is whether this is primarily because lots who voted D in the past either stayed home<\/del> didn’t vote (whether by choice or because of suppression) or voted third party. If yes, then the big question is \u201cwhy didn’t they vote for D again?\u201d <\/p>\n

3. If neither of the above accounts for what happened, then the implication is that a non-negligible share of people who had voted D in the past were actually comparing what R and D had to offer, and at least in a select set of districts in a select set of states, chose R. Then the big question is \u201cwhy would they switch?\u201d<\/p>\n

My current belief, based on results (vote shares, vote share swings, and vote totals) and my own understanding about voters, is that 3 is unimportant, asking about the relative appeal of the R vs D candidates is irrelevant, and better understanding would come from examining why Rs do what they do as Rs and Ds as Ds. But my belief about this would change if I saw individual-level survey data or voter file data suggesting that 3 is in fact important.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1. R votes were about what they were in the past. What we really need to know is whether these are almost entirely people who have chosen R in the past. If yes, then the big question for Rs is \u201cwhy would they accept him?\u201d If it’s lots of new R votes, compensating for lots … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Election questions”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2384"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2384\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2392,"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2384\/revisions\/2392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyrussamii.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}